Flattening Curve Aside, Bonds Haven't Been So Calm Since '79

  • Ten-year yield swings by paltry 11 basis points in November
  • ‘Longer bonds win and shorter bonds lose,’ FTN’s Vogel says

Here's What Tulips and the Great Recession Have in Common

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For all the hullabaloo around the flattening U.S. yield curve in November, the 10-year yield is still on track for its least turbulent month in almost four decades.

The note’s yield, which serves as a benchmark for everything from U.S. mortgages to borrowing costs for municipalities, fell in November to as low as 2.3 percent and topped out at 2.41 percent. That’s the narrowest range since 1979. Even with volatility largely suppressed, the rate has swung about 32 basis points on average every month over the past five years.