Despite low poll numbers, Trump scrapes through to re-election as the disorganized Democrats split between Democrat Kamala Harris and independent Bernie Sanders, by then age 79.

Trump finally manages to repeal Obamacare—but doesn’t replace it. Chaos ensues in the U.S. health-care system just as the economic sugar high wears off and the stock-market bubble pops. The U.S. falls into a deep recession.

It seems likely the U.S. will face an inflation problem over the coming 12 months. Some variations of the 2018-2021 scenario are therefore possible, particularly the part about disorganized Democrats losing the 2020 elections. Challenges to growth could arise from higher inflation and the monetary tightening that would follow. Compound that with cyclical stress on health care and more fractured politics, and U.S. financial assets suddenly appear far less attractive. A possible long-term play is to short U.S. equities vs. long global equities outside North America.

CEOs of Silicon Valley companies announce that they’ve developed artificial intelligence programs to root out disinformation with a high degree of accuracy. But in the run-up to the presidential election, the voice-activated home assistants filling American homes are hacked to give pro-Trump answers to questions about the economy and foreign policy.

Media brands with their own distribution channels and reputations for a balanced, fact-based approach would benefit, though the polarization of society may mean that ‘tribal’ media brands may be winners as well. Conference business models could benefit, especially in high-end markets, to counter the ‘fake’ information—and to collect peer-to-peer insights on important issues. Shorting Nasdaq against global equities could work longer term, as the regulatory regime is likely to worsen for tech firms.

China’s Alibaba adopts its own cryptocurrency for use inside its vast e-commerce network, establishing the mass-market viability of digital money. Following Venezuela’s lead, Greece and a few African countries adopt bitcoin, which hits $100,000.

Vanished bank deposits would likely drive a major disbelief in all things digital, even bitcoin. Owning real physical assests, such as gold, luxury real estate for high net worth individuals, artwork, and safety vault producers in general as individuals seek to store more of their wealth within their private residences. The cyber-insurance sector would benefit as the world would scramble to find a solution to decimated trust in the financial sector.

Eager to end his first term on a high, Trump announces that the U.S. will start selling military equipment to China. He also warns Japan and South Korea that he will withdraw American troops if they don’t play ball on trade. Spooked by the possible loss of its protective shield, Tokyo ramps up military spending.

On Trump’s last day in office, Xi announces plans to annex Taiwan. Trump welcomes the move, saying, “it’s a great deal for the people of Taiwan.” Japan says it will begin developing nuclear weapons. South Korea signs a defense pact with China.

One play is to go long on Japanese defense manufacturers and to do the same within the U.S. defense sector as well. Liquid markets such as the Korean won, South Korea’s currency, could get hurt due to rising regional instability and accessibility for investors to achieve exposure to dynamics in the region.

The U.K. leaves the European Union with a deal on March 29. Corbyn blames the Conservative Party for misleading the nation as the cost of departure turns out to be higher than May’s government had indicated.

Corbyn borrows heavily and ramps up taxes to push through his socialist agenda. University education is free. Wealthy bankers flee London, and so do the taxes they were paying. Corbyn announces plans to turn some of their properties into low-income housing. The yield on U.K. 10-year government bonds hits 5 percent.

Socialism is sexy again, and Corbyn gets re-elected with a stomping majority. But then, economic reality starts to set in after years of overspending. Debt shoots past 100 percent of GDP and inflation starts to spiral out of control.

This would keep downward pressure on the pound and anchor it within a perpetual state of weakness. This translates into relative cheapness on a broad basis against other major currencies. Maintaining a short bias against the pound is the investment stance while also looking for long-term exposure to high-quality manufacturing exporters that would gain a competitive edge from a perennially weak sterling.

A dwindling working-age population can’t support the cost of retiring baby boomers, tipping Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece into financial crisis. Macron and Germany’s Angela Merkel are so unpopular that neither can impose fiscal discipline. The EU Commission fines both of their countries for flouting deficit rules.

With youth unemployment at 50 percent in much of Europe, the populist Five Star movement wins in Italy. Governments begin to crumble under the cost of their commitments. Catalonia votes to leave Spain. The mother country, too poor to afford a military, is powerless to stop it.

Low fertility and early retirement mean it takes two workers to support one retiree in much of Europe. The young refuse to pay taxes. In the latest breakaway, Belgium splits into three parts: the French, the Flemish and Brussels, the capital of what little remains of the EU.

Shorting the euro would be the long-term play. Given aging populations and social angst as the young refuse to pay taxes, immigration would come to the forefront as more arrivals would be needed to keep those economies standing. Having investment exposures to companies that are in the business of bringing foreign workers into the euro zone—either temporarily or permanently—would be one investment strategy to consider.

Beijing pours billions more into subsidizing China’s full conversion to electric vehicles by 2028. Trump, in his second term, refuses to rejoin Paris. Instead, he increases tax breaks for oil companies and old car makers. Russia also abandons the climate deal.

As the planet enters an age of weather extremes, China sees that climate change is starting to dry up its network of rivers. Relations between Trump and Xi remain warm, but officials in Beijing start talking about forcing the U.S. to change its behavior on climate.

China starts freezing out and imposing trade sanctions on countries that are lagging behind on CO2 targets—including the U.S.

Being long on low carbon companies is one play as carbon footprint becomes more and more relevant. It can be a competitive edge in a period of advancing consumer awareness of environmental impacts. One potential ETF to look to is the low-carbon ETF.

Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia, and the IPO of Saudi Aramco is a big success. He goes on a spending splurge to build “Neom,” his megacity in the desert. The rest of the world’s attention is focused on the success of the new electric cars flowing off assembly lines in Silicon Valley and Shenzhen. Oil ends the year at $40.

Economies from Japan to the U.S. struggle as the shock of rapid change upends the automobile sector’s supply chain. The biggest turmoil is felt in Moscow and Riyadh as budgets are obliterated by lower oil prices. Riots break out outside Russian factories. Oil hits $20.

Saudi Arabia falls into an economic depression and political instability spreads through the Middle East. President Vladimir Putin retires from politics and tries to govern through a proxy, former central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina. Oil falls to $10.

If this lower-oil scenario were to play out, there would be a transfer of wealth across countries and sectors. Net energy importing countries would benefit greatly through terms-of-trade-gains while net energy exporting countries would get hurt. Betting on countries that benefit from this process would be one long-term strategy to follow (bet against energy producers). Also sectors such as airlines would perform better than the energy sector: a trade one could put on in the equity market.