Matt Levine, Columnist

You Don’t Need to Pick the Stocks

Also blockchain interest rates, strategic brand advising, Honesty Markets and warthogs.

If you are a good smart quantitative investor, you have a model that tells you what stocks to buy. You’ll buy more shares of the stocks that have high probabilities of going up a lot, and fewer shares of the stocks that have lower probabilities of going up less, and you’ll short shares of companies that have high probabilities of going down a lot. You will have a complete, probabilistic world view that can be expressed by some linear combination of shares of all of the available stocks.

If you’re just a regular old investor, the same thing will be true in some rough sense: You’ll own the stocks you like, in the amounts you like, and short the stocks you don’t like, etc., and some probabilistic world view can be inferred from the set of shares that you own. You don’t necessarily think of your investing that way, but it can be characterized that way.