U.S.-China Confrontation Risk Is Highest in the South China Sea

  • Military activity is picking up again in the disputed waterway
  • Comes as U.S. and China tensions rise over trade, Covid-19
A sailor stands atop an FA-18 hornet fighter jet during a routine training aboard US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt in the South China sea in 2018.Photographer: TED ALJIBE/AFP
Lock
This article is for subscribers only.

As China and the U.S. trade barbs over everything from trade to Covid-19 to Hong Kong, the two powers are at greater risk of careering into physical confrontation. And nowhere are their warships and fighter jets coming as close to each other, with as much frequency, as the South China Sea.

A military conflict would probably be devastating for both. There are no signs that either side actually wants one. Still, in times of high tension, miscalculations can have unintended consequences.