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Sweden’s Coronavirus Experiment

Updated on August 12, 1:33 PM EDT

What You Need To Know

Sweden, which has refused to close down schools and restaurants to contain the new coronavirus, is being closely watched as many other countries are gradually opening up their economies from stricter lockdowns. The controversial Swedish approach is seen by some as a warning and by others as an example of how to contain the disease without draconian measures.

In terms of infections and deaths, Sweden is still better off than the worst affected countries in Europe, but it’s faring a lot worse than neighboring countries with more similar characteristics. For example, the country currently has more than nine times as many deaths per million inhabitants as Norway.

Epidemiologists warn that it may be too early to draw conclusions, and some, such as Johan Giesecke, an advisor to the World Health Organization and a former Swedish state epidemiologist, has argued that when the dust has settled most comparable countries will have more or less similar death rates per capita. Giesecke argued that while Sweden has borne the brunt of infections early on, the virus will continue to spread through populations that haven’t been exposed in the absence of an effective vaccine.

A counterargument is that countries that delayed the spread by enforcing lockdowns have increased the chance that there will be treatments for patients that get critically ill in new waves of infections.

An unequivocal failure in Sweden has been its inability to protect the elderly. As of late April, about half of those over 70 years old who had died from Covid-19 had been infected in nursing homes. Government agencies have blamed the staggering death rates among elderly under care on poor routines and an unexpected lack of preparedness to deal with the pandemic. Critics argue that a strict lockdown early on would have given caregivers and authorities breathing room to ensure that protective equipment was available and that guidelines were being followed.

By The Numbers

  • 43 per 100,000 The number of Covid-19 deaths in Sweden. The comparable U.S. rate is 32.
  • 7% The expected drop in economic output this year, roughly in line with the European Union as a whole.
  • 30x The increase in government borrowing this year to cover emergency spending.

Why It Matters

Michael Ryan, who runs WHO’s health emergencies program, recently said that Sweden may represent “a future model” for “a new normal.” The idea is that even after enforced lockdowns, governments will need to trust citizens to adhere to social-distancing recommendations, as Swedes have largely done.

Swedish public health authorities have often made the case that while a complete lockdown may be effective in curtailing infections for a period of time, a softer approach is more sustainable over time. As other European countries are in the process of easing restrictions, the limited measures that Sweden has implemented remain in place. That means that Sweden may not only lose its status as an outlier, but that it could even become more restrictive than some other European countries.

As for the economic effects of a looser policy, countries that are seeking to limit damage by emulating Sweden’s strategy shouldn’t expect any miracles. The export-dependent economy has been unable to withstand the global shock triggered by widespread lockdowns elsewhere, and a slew of service-sector companies are at risk of going bankrupt as customers stay away.

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