As coronavirus cases and deaths continue to increase in the U.S., researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predict that as many as 290,000 deaths from Covid-19 could occur by December.
The projections are one of several models that aim to predict the course of the disease in the U.S., and are based on research that considers data from other outbreak hotspots around the world and local conditions in each state.
The methodology behind the projections has changed as researchers incorporate more information. Researchers now directly model how the disease is transmitted, considering factors like temperatures rising, social-distancing mandates being lifted and measures being implemented that could reduce spread, like more testing and contact tracing. Critics have said that the White House is relying on modeling that relies on statistics like hospitalizations rather than accounting for how people are likely to become sick.
The projections are updated regularly as new information on cases and other data are collected, and Bloomberg News is monitoring the changes. Like any estimate, the model depends on the assumptions that go into it, which can make forecasting results far in the future difficult, or highly variable.
The outbreak is expected to peak at different times in each state. The model projects a high and low range of deaths, as well as an average. While projections suggest that the number of deaths per day in several states has already peaked, several states could see a new increase in deaths in the fall.
In some states, the group said it has predicted more deaths at least in part because of an easing of social-distancing measures. In places like Florida, Alabama and Texas, researchers found increasing mobility by people, contributing to an increased number of predicted deaths.
The total number of deaths in each state will be influenced by factors including the vulnerability of the population, the availability of testing, hospital beds and medical equipment and the timing and effectiveness of distancing orders. The model has been adjusted to reflect states’s social-distancing policies, as well as when mobility decreases voluntarily, or increases as people go back to normal life. Many states have begun lifting restrictions on businesses and social distancing, and the model is likely to change further as more states follow.