The Coronavirus Isn’t Steamrolling Elections — Yet

The coronavirus that has upended the world's economic and social life is turning out to be a mediocre election campaigner. The lesson of recent contests in Asia is that pre-existing conditions haven’t gone away and will likely be decisive, even in the bitterly fought U.S. campaign.

Singapore's general election Friday, among the first of the Covid-19 era, saw a big swing against the entrenched incumbent party that positioned itself as best placed to steer the country through the pandemic. With a history of unbroken rule since independence in 1965, four swiftly passed stimulus bills and relatively few virus deaths, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's People's Action Party banked on receiving a strong mandate. Instead, the opposition made historic gains.

The government was on the defensive, but not so much for the way it handled the disease. Issues that have percolated for years — population size, immigration, inequality and checks on executive power — forced their way to the forefront. The coronavirus was present, though not the be all and end all. It also took a back seat in special elections in Australia and Malaysia. Electoral battles, as always, need to be picked, and fought shrewdly, on local conditions.

There’s been a growing expectation as the pandemic deeply disrupted societies that it would deliver political victory, or oblivion. Certainly, the coronavirus has magnified important bread and butter issues — the global economy is suffering the deepest downturn in almost a century, and more than half a million people have lost their lives. Many concerns are now viewed — and some given greater urgency — through a Covid prism.

Yet the past week has shown there’s been no flight to safety; nor has there been a mad rush to throw office-holders out. In Australia, Prime Minister Scott Morrison's fairly successful handling of the virus, despite a major recent setback in Melbourne, wasn't enough to overcome the fiasco from devastating wildfires six months ago. A mayor who had been among his biggest critics hung on to a federal parliamentary seat for the opposition Labor party July 4; a few weeks earlier, Morrison had liked his chances of taking the district. The same day, a by-election for a state assembly slot in Malaysia said more about dynamics among the parties claiming to represent the Malay majority than it did about Covid-19. Former premier Najib Razak's Barisan Nasional retained the seat in thumping fashion, getting 10 times more votes than other parties combined.