Mohamed A. El-Erian , Columnist

U.S. Must Do Better on Its Second Covid-19 Test

The nation needs to incorporate lessons from its first “natural experiment” about policy relief, social distancing, testing and contact tracing.

Personal behavior is important.

Photographer: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

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In combating Covid-19, the U.S. stumbled into a “natural experiment” whose national negative outcomes have outweighed the positive ones, including greater loss of life and more cases of debilitating illness, not to mention a setback to economic recovery. Now it faces a second natural experiment whose outcome is also likely to be disappointing unless we are willing to learn more from the first one.

By largely ceding decision-making to the states, the U.S. ended up with a much different approach than the vast majority of other countries in emerging from the severe economic coronavirus lockdowns. While individual results vary, there is now overwhelming evidence that the majority of states that reopened early are now saddled with both health and economic crises with no quick way to resolve both at the same time.