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Real-Time Labor Market Estimates
During the 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak*
Alexander Bick
Arizona State University
Adam Blandin
Virginia Commonwealth University
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First version: April 15, 2020
Current version: June 18, 2021
(click for the most recent version)
Abstract
Official labor market statistics for the United States are collected once a month and published
with a three week delay. In normal times, this procedure results in timely and useful statistics.
But these are not normal times. Currently, the most recent statistics refer to May 9-15; new
statistics will not be available until Friday, July 2. In the meantime, the COVID-19 pandemic
is rapidly reshaping the US economy. This project aims to reduce this information lag by
providing data on labor market conditions several weeks ahead of official statistics. We do so
via an online labor market survey of a sample representative of the US working age population,
which we refer to as the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS). The core labor market questions
in the RPS follow the government survey (the CPS), which allows us to construct estimates
consistent with theirs. The RPS was conducted twice monthly from March through October,
and since then is conducted monthly. The latest RPS estimates for working age adults from
the week of June 6-12 show a slowdown in the labor market recovery between early May and
early June.
*This is preliminary research still in progress. Feedback is appreciated. We thank the Center for the Advanced
Study in Economic Efficiency at ASU, the Office of the Vice President for Research and Innovation at VCU, and
the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas for generous financial support. We thank Carola Grebitus, Richard Laborin,
and Raphael Schoenle for crucial help starting this project, and Bart Hobijn, Todd Schoellman, Karel Mertens, and
Ryan Michaels for helpful feedback and discussion. We also thank Minju Jeong and Juan Odriozola for outstanding
research assistance. For more information, or to subscribe to receive updated drafts, please visit our project website.
Contact the authors at alexander.@asu.edu and ajblandin@vcu.edu. The Real-Time Population Survey is conducted
in collaboration with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The results from the Real-Time Population Survey do not
represent official forecasts or views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, its President, the Federal Reserve System,
or the Federal Open Market Committee.
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1 Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a sharp economic downturn in the US and around the world.
Designing an appropriate and effective policy response to the crisis is now a major priority for
policymakers and researchers.
Effective policies require timely and accurate data on the scale of the downturn, yet traditional
data sources are only made available at a significant lag. For example, the most recent Employment
Situation Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was released Friday, June 4. This report
reflects labor market conditions from the week of May 9-15, and so is already several weeks out
of date. The next BLS report will not be released until Friday, July 2.
The goal of this project is to provide more timely information on the state of the labor mar- ket. To do so we collect online survey data from a sample representative of the US working age
population (ages 18-64). The survey questions closely follow the structure of the Basic Labor
Market module in the Current Population Survey (CPS), which allows us to compute labor market
estimates consistent with their measures. We also include a suite of questions specifically tailored
to the present economic situation which are not asked by the CPS. We refer to our survey as the
Real-Time Population Survey (RPS).
The RPS was conducted twice monthly from March through October, and since then is con- ducted monthly. Beginning with the third survey wave in late April 2020, the RPS is conducted in
collaboration with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The latest RPS estimates for working age adults from the week of June 6-12 show a slowdown in
the labor market recovery between early May and early June:
1. Employment in the RPS decreased from 71.1% to 70.7% between early May and early June,
though the change is not statistically significant. Employment currently remains well below
its February 2020 level of 73.8%.
2. The RPS unemployment rate was 7.2% in June 6-12 unchanged from early May. Labor force
participation decreased over the same period, but the change was not statistically significant.
3. Among those who were employed in February 2020, 23.0% have experienced a loss in earn- ings as of June 6-12. This is down from 37.4% in mid April 2020, indicating that some
earnings losses experienced early in the pandemic were temporary in nature. Roughly one
half of those who are earning less are currently working but have received a pay cut relative
to February 2020. Meanwhile, 30.0% are earning more than in February 2020, more than
the number who have lost earnings since the start of the pandemic.
4. Among those in the RPS who were working in February 2020, just under two thirds are still
working for the same employer as in February 2020; the remainder are either working for
a different employer or not employed. Net increases in employment since April 2020 came
primarily from a growing number of individuals working for a new employer, rather than
returning to their employer from February 2020. Among those who worked in February
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2020 but are not currently working, less than half believe they would be able to return to
their previous employer.
In the next section we provide a brief overview of our online survey and compare it to some
other labor market surveys. Section 3 summarizes the results of validation exercises comparing la- bor market outcomes in our survey to outcomes in recent CPS survey months. Section 4 documents
the key estimates for labor market aggregates derived from our survey. Section 5 documents how
earnings have changed among individuals who were employed in February. Section 6 documents
heterogeneity in labor market changes across several demographic and economic groups. Finally,
Section 7 concludes and discusses next steps for this project.
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