Democrats’ Quest for Senate Majority Rides on Biden’s Coattails

By Laura Litvan, Skylar Woodhouse and Allison McCartney

September 1, 2020, 4:00 AM EDT

Democrats’ bid to retake the Senate after six years of Republican control hinges on Joe Biden carrying the party’s candidates across the line in closely contested races.

President Donald Trump’s stubbornly low approval ratings, the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and Biden’s lead in polls of the presidential contest are a drag on Republican candidates and an opportunity for Democrats nine weeks before the election.

Follow the storythread for real time updates on this graphic.

Democrats are all but certain to make Senate gains beyond the 47 Senate seats they now hold, with particularly strong prospects of defeating GOP incumbents in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina.

But with a likely loss by Democratic Senator Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama, a close presidential contest could leave the two parties splitting the Senate in half, analysts said, even with GOP seats in Montana, Georgia and Iowa and several other states now in the mix. That would give control to the party in the White House.

“I could see a pretty clear path to 50-50, but it’s a harder climb past that” for Democrats, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball election forecast at the University of Virginia.

For Democrats to do better, Biden will have to take the White House and win or at least keep Trump’s margin razor thin in states like Iowa and Georgia. If Trump once again can pull off a come-from-behind victory, Democrats might have to settle for holding on to the House.

“It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where Biden doesn’t win and Democrats win the Senate,” Kondik said. “They’re tied at the hip.”

Collins is one of the few candidates attempting to put some modest distance between herself and Trump. All of the Republicans in tough spots now must attract some votes from independents to win. But they also can’t win without keeping Trump’s loyal base on their side.

“Many of the Senate Republicans are in an impossible situation,” Jessica Taylor, Senate editor of the Cook Report, said.

Neither party gave much of a spotlight to close Senate races at their national presidential nominating conventions. Jones spoke at the Democratic convention and Ernst addressed last week’s Republican gathering.

On the final night of the GOP convention, McConnell described the Republican Senate as “the firewall” against the liberal Democratic agenda.

Amid the flood of bad poll numbers and analyst forecasts, Republicans have had some good news recently. A Georgia seat held by Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed, is considered more likely to remain in GOP hands even if the November vote results in a runoff later. In Kansas last month, Republican Representative Roger Marshall won the Senate primary over former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a polarizing figure Washington Republicans worried could cost them the seat being vacated by the retirement of Pat Roberts.

Republicans are attempting to attack individual candidates and tie them, as well as Biden and running mate Kamala Harris, to the party’s outspoken and highly visible progressive wing, represented by self-described democratic socialists Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

“Voter sentiment is beginning to shift against them as Republicans shine a bright light on the scandals facing each candidate and the socialist agenda they are rallying around,” said Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Senatorial Campaign Committee.

At their convention, Democrats highlighted the party’s moderates as well as the establishment leanings of Biden and Harris’s backgrounds. She is the first Black woman and candidate of Indian descent on a major party ticket. It’s a direct appeal to the centrist and minority voters who are crucial to Democrats’ hopes of winning both the White House and Senate.

Jones, who is in a tough battle against former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, said in an interview he’s seen growing excitement from the party’s base in largely conservative Alabama with Biden and Harris at the top of the ticket.

“I think they represent the best of both worlds from both the traditional old-school politics to the new younger generation,” he said.

Stewart Boss, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said while having Biden at the top as nominee created a more favorable environment for Democratic Senate candidates, there is still a path to a party takeover of the chamber even if Trump wins the White House. Some Republican incumbents are under-performing the president in polls in their states, he said.

“In addition to the environment and the presidential performance, these Republican incumbents are very weak on their own terms,” Boss said.

Still, Biden’s victory over Sanders in the Democratic presidential primaries helped Democrats present a more centrist front that Taylor and other analysts said should have wider appeal to voters.

“He’s not as polarizing as some of the other candidates,” Taylor said, “and that’s put more states in play.”

Democrats’ Quest for Senate Majority Rides on Biden’s Coattails

Senate seats up for election in 2020