Prognosis

As Covid Deaths Hit 1 Million, Scientist Says Toll May be Double

  • Global fatalities may be closer to 1.8 million, academic says
  • Dearth of accurate data frustrates effort to mitigate pandemic

Medical staff wrap a deceased patient with bed sheets in the Covid-19 ICU at a hospital in Houston, Texas, in June. 

Photographer: Go Nakamura/Getty Images
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The world officially recorded 1 million deaths from Covid-19 in one of the most sobering milestones of the pandemic, but the real tally might be almost double that.

Actual fatalities from the worst outbreak in a century may be closer to 1.8 million -- a toll that could grow to as high as 3 million by the end of the year, according to Alan Lopez, a laureate professor and director of the University of Melbourne’s global burden of disease group. The coronavirus’s rapid spread and ability to transmit in people who show no signs of the disease have enabled it to outrun measures to accurately quantify cases through widespread diagnostic testing.