Lindsey Graham Is Suddenly in Trouble in Deep-Red South Carolina

October 9, 2020, 4:00 AM EDT

The Cook Political Report on Oct. 7, 2020

Senator Lindsey Graham’s lead role in next week’s Supreme Court nomination hearings will be the high-wire finale to his suddenly close race for re-election.

The South Carolina Republican and Senate Judiciary Committee chairman is staking his political career on supporting President Donald Trump and on delivering another conservative jurist, Judge Amy Coney Barrett, to the high court.

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That should be a winning strategy in a conservative state that Trump won by 14 points four years ago. But 2020 is anything but a typical year in American politics. Instead of cruising to a third term, Graham finds himself deadlocked with Democrat Jaime Harrison in recent polls and being out-raised and outspent as the election draws closer.

South Carolina was low on the list for most Democrats as the party plotted a strategy for retaking the Senate at the beginning of the year. There were a half dozen more tempting and viable targets, such as Maine, Colorado and Arizona. But the coronavirus pandemic, Trump’s stubbornly low approval ratings and the swirl of controversies have kept expanding the possibilities for Democrats.

Graham still has some advantages in such a strong Republican bastion, but those have been weakening. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the race from “solid Republican” to “lean Republican” in April and on Wednesday put it in the toss-up category.

A loss by Graham would be a major blow to the GOP and a big bonus for Democrats. The stakes are evident to both parties. National Republican and Democratic leadership-aligned political action committees have started pouring millions of dollars into South Carolina, a state that hasn’t elected a new Democratic senator since 1966. Graham has taken to regularly beseeching Fox News viewers for campaign donations.

Harrison has outpaced Graham more than 2-to-1 in direct campaign advertising spent or reserved, $66 million to $24 million, according to Advertising Analytics—spending $7.5 million last week alone.

Graham, who recently described the Barrett hearings as the “Super Bowl” of his Judiciary chairmanship, said in an interview that he knows his state well and is confident of prevailing on Nov. 3.

“We’re taking it very seriously,” Graham said of Harrison’s campaign. But, he added, “I think I will win decisively when it’s all said and done. I’m on the right side of the issues.”

Danielle Vinson, a politics professor at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina, said that Graham is confronting a backlash among suburban women for his support for Trump and the last Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, in 2018. He’s also facing the potential for more younger voters, who tend to tilt toward Democrats and are energized by the Black Lives Matter movement, she said.

Vinson points out that the Palmetto State is becoming less religious and more worried about health care, especially in the year of coronavirus, which has killed more than 3,000 South Carolinians—roughly one in 1,500 residents.

“What he’s underestimated is the state has started to change,” she said of Graham. “This is the perfect year for the right Democrat in South Carolina to be competitive in this state.”

Jaime Harrison speaks at a “Rural Hope Agenda” event in Rowesville, South Carolina, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 28, 2020.

Photographer: Micah Green/Bloomberg

Harrison has proved to be a formidable candidate. He has highlighted his life story, growing up as an African American in South Carolina, getting a scholarship to Yale University and later graduating from Georgetown Law. He later worked for House Democratic Whip Jim Clyburn—the highest ranking African-American in Congress and an elder statesman of South Carolina politics. Harrison later became chairman of the state Democratic Party and a lobbyist.

“He doesn’t come with a lot of baggage, he’s not from the progressive wing of the party, and they cleared the field for him,” Vinson said.

Still, she said she’s surprised Harrison has done so well given the state’s GOP tilt.

A Quinnipiac University poll late last month showed a 48%-48% tie between the two candidates. It also had some underlying positives for Harrison. A 50%-43% plurality backed the Affordable Care Act and a 55%-37% majority supported Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court ruling that legalized abortion.

Republicans are seeking to have the Supreme Court overturn both, with Barrett a potential deciding vote if she joins the bench.

Graham hammered home his backing for conservative justices at the first debate Saturday night, brushing off questions about going back on his word. In 2016, and again in 2018 after the Kavanaugh hearings, Graham said that he wouldn’t consider a Trump Supreme Court pick in an election year.

Harrison assailed Graham for the flip-flop.

“Senator, you said, ‘use my words against me,’” Harrison said. “You made a promise to the people of South Carolina that you wouldn’t be doing what you’re doing right now.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham speaks with U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh during a meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, July 11, 2018.

Photographer: Yuri Gripas/Bloomberg

Harrison, who had an aunt die from Covid-19, also attacked the federal response to the virus and said Graham had failed to do enough to help the thousands in South Carolina who have become unemployed, lost their health insurance or are struggling to pay rent.

Graham said he’s willing to do more but won’t support what he calls “socialist” policies on the left or a resurrection of the full $600 supplemental unemployment benefit that expired in July and helped the economy bounce back from the Covid-19 recession. He has opposed Democrats’ demands on the grounds it would discourage work.

The Republican incumbent has put effort into shoring up support among the state’s conservative base, which in the past has viewed him with suspicion for his support for bipartisan immigration legislation and other stances that aligned him with moderates. That’s also part of his embrace of Trump, whom Graham once labeled as a race-baiting bigot who would destroy the GOP.

“Graham made a strategic decision that he wanted to avoid a primary, and he has carried a lot of water for Trump,” said Chip Felkel, a public affairs consultant who calls himself a Republican in exile. “The calculation that was made is there’s a whole lot more people who support Trump than there are moderates and independents who used to support Graham.”

Trump’s standing with GOP voters, energized by the Supreme Court nomination, should still help get Graham re-elected in such a heavily Republican state, Felkel said.

“Harrison’s had a perfect storm to put him in this position,” he said. “But it’s still South Carolina.”

Lindsey Graham Is Suddenly in Trouble in Deep-Red South Carolina

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