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Trinh

Sep 22, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

The same, if not worse, side effects for lock-downs.

https://twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1308386807126646785

I also love how no one talks about Sweden anymore & well, what did I say about Sweden?

Am I right or am I right? Marathon & not a sprint.

Lock-downs are not sustainable, psychological, fiscally, socially and economically, so no way u can sustain anything w/ locking people down

Have u ever watched American advert for drugs? Usually, it goes like this. Feel depressed? Take XYZ drug. Shows a woman feeling better after being oh so sad. Then at the end it goes like this.

A man narrates fast: "Side effects include a massive list that's worse than depression

Side-effects of depression drug:
nausea
increased appetite and weight gain
loss of sexual desire & other sexual problems, such as erectile dysfunction & decreased orgasm
fatigue and drowsiness
insomnia
dry mouth
blurred vision
constipation
dizziness
agitation
irritability
anxiety

People talk about side-effects of Covid, which they like to use after they realize that the 200k of deaths flashing not having the same shock & awe value anymore as the new deaths lower, to hammer in the fear & the acceptance of lockdowns.

Side-effects of lock-downs:

Lock-downs treat Covid (actually no, did not save massive deaths but whatever let's pretend it does), & side-effects include:

*Wide-spread: depression, higher suicides, drug overdose, higher poverty, higher spread of disease among the poor, mass unemployment, mass misery...

Side effects include:

Learned helplessness, children not being educated, adults losing jobs, small businesses annihilated, big businesses falter ex tech & Walmart & Home Depot, local govs out of funds, tourism dead, all life events cancelled, all social gatherings cancelled...

Side-effects include:

Higher domestic abuse, the poor poorer, the rich richer, people divided over trivial issues, high social unrest as people feel frustrated, debt piles up but income falls, everything that makes us human is being shamed - that is us being social & connecting.

Side-effects include:

No human touch, esp if u live alone & elderly, dying alone, not getting elective surgery, a lot of diseases not treated, doctors out of work but people getting more ill as people only care about Covid, everyone, incl kids staring at the screen, dehumanized.

Side-effects include:

Apparently more people are dying of hunger because of Covid than Covid. I heard that somewhere.

Anyway, yes, but go for it, lock-downs are great!!! Don't worry about the side-effects! 🤗

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

Apr 19

Who likes higher fuel prices in Asia??? Well, no one except Indonesia and Malaysia and by that I mean exporters.

The biggest deficit as a share of GDP goes to Thailand but mostly in LNG. Second is South Korea.

Obvs this is as a share of GDP. Higher fuel costs = higher import costs = someone has to pay for it & eg higher inflation or higher fiscal costs.

Who likes higher food prices? Well, a few - Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and India. Obvs this is EXPORTERS only who gain. EM has high food as a share of consumption basket. But net food exporters have levers to pull. They can BAN exporting of food.

Who is most vulnerable? The Philippines. South Korea imports a lot too.

Putting food and fuel together as a share of GDP: Who is most exposed?

Well, South Korea and the Philippines. KRW doesn't like this news.

PHP doesn't like it. One caveat is that SK is much richer so can afford it more than say PH where this will hurt more.

Winners? Malaysia. Yes, Malaysia.

Read 4 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

Apr 12

Good morning,

Did you know that South Korea exports more to the US now than it does to China?

Actually, it isn't alone. A lot of Asian countries, due to supply chain reshuffling and also geopolitics and industrial policies, are exporting now more to US than China.

Why is South Korea doing more trade with a country far away than a country next door?

First, growth of exports to the US is faster than exports to China. In fact, China hasn't been importing much more and it is Korea that has been importing more from China for goods such as intermediate goods etc.

This has raised a big concern in Korea that China is a competitor & it's hard for SK to compete with its industrial policy and subsidies.

And so South Korea has 1 lever it can pull that is better than China - GEOPOLITICS. South Korea is an ally to the US. And as a country w/ a US FTA, it is being favored.

Whether it's the Chips Act or the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the whole point is to exclude China.

So what?

Read 8 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

Feb 8

Another Five Years of Jokonomics? More Infrastructure, Metals and Mining FDI, and Even Greater Dependency on China

A thread 🧵

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1754765386359197836

Indonesia elects a new president in a week. The leading candidate is riding high on Jokonomics, or the continuation of his policy & popularity, as Jokowi's eldest son is VP.

Prabowo promises 8% average GDP growth or Jokonomics. How realistic & what is Jokonomics anyway?

While people believe that Prabowo is the best bet of doing more of what popular Jokowi has done for Indonesia in the past decade & he promises the highest growth, Jokowi 10-year only produced 4.2% GDP growth on average. Stripping out 2020 (Covid), it's 4.9%. No where near 8% 👈

Read 26 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

Feb 6

Indonesia elects a new president next week to replace Jokowi. The leading candidate - Prabowo - is riding the president's coat tail as many hope that he is the best hope for continuation. But what is Jokonomics exactly? From 2014 to 2023, Indonesia grew on average 4.2% per yr👈.

If we strip out 2020, which economy contracted, then under Jokowi, the economy grew 4.9% on average (4.2% if we don't strip it out).

So that's sub 5%. In fact, GDP barely deviates from 5% level. So why do people think that Prabowo is the key to escape the middle income trap?

Pres Jokowi's biggest accomplishments come from the fiscal side. Indonesia got investment grade in 2017. By weaning Indonesia slowly off expensive energy subsides, the expenditure side was contained. And with the commodity boom, Indonesia fiscal positions were leaner than most.

Read 12 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

Feb 2

Today is 2 Feb and we're basically two years since the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022.

So what you say? Well, since then, Asian FX has lost grounds to the USD, except SGD & HKD.

JPY lost -21.5%
CNH -12.1%
MYR -11.4%
TWD -10.2%
KRW -9.4%
INR -9.2%
AUD -9.1%
IDR -8.7%

What we know is that the Fed took rates from 0.25% to 5.5% or +5.25% increase, which is the sharpest since the 1980s of tightening cycle.

On top of this, it also has to wean down its massive balance sheet (BS) by letting 60bn UST & 35bn MBS roll off.

So what? Well, USD rallied.

People thought that in 2022, the Fed would only hike ever so meagerly but it kept going.

People thought that in 2023, the Fed would CUT because, well, the economy would crack but it kept going until July 2023 at 5.5%.

People thought that the Fed would CUT in March 2024 but...

Read 8 tweets

Trinh

@Trinhnomics

Dec 21, 2023

As we bid adieu to 2023, which was an abysmal economic year for EM Asia (India an exception), hope springs eternal as we look to 2024 with key drags dissipating.

A thread 🧵👈

bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

The great expectations of China lifting the region via imports and tourism disappointed as demand faded, weighed down by property market woes & weak investment.

From Korea to Vietnam, exports to China crashed, dragging down overall shipment, hurting big traders the most.

The goods deflation felt globally, especially in ICT, hit big traders hard. Commodity exporters such as Indonesia too didn't like the downward price trend.

Despite stronger US growth, China downward import growth dragged Asian exports.

India not being a bit trader helped shield

Read 14 tweets

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