Talked Up as Spoiler, Kanye West’s 2020 Bid Draws Mostly Shrugs

(Bloomberg) -- Kanye West roared onto the political stage in July with his presidential bid, prompting speculation the famous rap musician could pull enough votes from Democratic nominee Joe Biden to tip a close contest to President Donald Trump.

Now, despite his global star power, West is looking more like a blip in the race than a spoiler, weeks before the Nov. 3 election.

West was never seen as a serious contender. Aided by Republican operatives, he got on the ballot in just a dozen states, not enough to compete in the Electoral College. The African-American celebrity may draw some votes from Biden, who enjoys overwhelming support from Black voters, but his impact looks to be limited. Only three of the states where his name is listed -- Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado -- are considered competitive between Biden and President Donald Trump.

Even so, outside candidates can nibble at the edges in a close election.

In Michigan, for example, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, with the Green Party, won a combined 223,599 votes in 2016 in a state Trump carried over Democrat Hillary Clinton by just 10,704 votes. In Wisconsin, where Trump won by 22,748, the two third-party candidates had a combined 137,746 votes, and in Pennsylvania, Trump edged Clinton by 44,292 votes to Johnson and Stein’s total of 196,656. What can’t be known is how many of those votes would have gone to Clinton, versus Trump, versus not voting at all. In 2000, the Florida vote recount between George W. Bush and Al Gore may not have been needed if 97,488 voters hadn’t chosen the Green Party’s Ralph Nader. Bush pipped Gore by 537 votes.

Flipping Minnesota?

Trump was hoping to flip Minnesota this year after losing by 44,593 votes in 2016, and West siphoning a few thousand votes from Biden would have helped. However, Biden’s up by 9.4 percentage points there in the RealClearPolitics polling average as of Friday. Minnesota voters have supported third-party candidates in the past, but Ken Martin, the state’s top Democrat, isn’t worried.

“We take any candidate on the ballot seriously until we don’t need to, and at this point, I would say we definitely do not need to take Kanye West seriously,” said Martin, chairman of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. “Most voters we talk to understand the stakes of this election, and they’re not willing to throw their vote away on sort of a gimmick candidate who has no chance of winning.”

Aside from a rally in South Carolina in July, West hasn’t campaigned at all, although on Thursday he tweeted a picture of a California ballot with his name written in as a presidential candidate. Oddly, his name is already on that state’s ballot as a vice presidential candidate with the right-wing American Independent Party, although that was not his doing.

Campaign Apparel

He’s also been selling campaign apparel on his website and tweeted a video holding “Vote Kanye” and “Kanye 2020 Vision” hats in front of a television over the heads of Vice President Mike Pence and Biden running mate Kamala Harris during their debate on Wednesday.

West’s wife, Kim Kardashian West, said on Instagram in July that the hip-hop artist and music producer has bipolar disorder and is a “brilliant but complicated person” who has to deal with “pressure and isolation that is heightened” by his mental illness.

West’s campaign didn’t respond to requests for comment, but he did report spending $5.9 million on his quixotic run, including $4.1 million to get onto state ballots. While he failed in the swing states of Wisconsin, Ohio and Arizona, he’s is on the ballot in Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah -- all states Trump is expected to win. He’s also on the ballot in Vermont, which Biden will likely win easily.

One state West could have an impact is Iowa, which Trump won in 2016 by 147,314 votes or more than 9 points. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Sept. 22 showed the race between Trump and Biden deadlocked at 47%, leaving room for a spoiler.

Anti-Establishment

It’s not even a given that West would actually pull votes from Biden instead of Trump. He has aligned with Trump on certain issues and appeared with him at least twice since 2016. West, 43, met with president-elect Trump before the inauguration. And he donned a red “Make America Great Again” hat for a 2018 meeting in the Oval Office. In a New York Times interview, West said he opposed abortion and talked about “restoring prayer in the classroom,” although he also talked about police reform.

Larry Jacobs, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota, said West could attract conservative Black voters who agree with Trump on policy issues but see him as a racist. Others say West could appeal to anti-establishment voters who would otherwise be more aligned with Trump than Biden.

Hoping West will skim some African-American support from Biden is not a great strategy for Republicans, said Peter Hanson, an associate professor of political science at Grinnell College in Iowa, and the director of the Grinnell College National Poll.

“It’s kind of a Hail Mary they’re throwing out there in the hope that if there’s a very, very close race, it might matter,” Hanson said.

Polls show voters are less inclined to support third parties this year. Monmouth University poll director Patrick Murray said the third-party candidates are garnering less than 5% support and that number is expected to drop as Election Day approaches.

“It’s not an election between two candidates that you don’t like and you’re not sure that the outcome would make the world any different,” Murray said. “You’re either for Trump or you’re against Trump -- and if you’re against Trump, you’ve got to vote for Joe Biden.”

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