Early Covid-19 Vaccine Hopes Have a Math Problem
The soonest possible chances for vaccine success also come with the highest risk of failure.
Moderna, among the front-runners in Covid-19 vaccines, will have to clear a high bar to gain early approval.
Photographer: Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images
Covid-19 vaccines may not arrive quite as soon as people hoped. An October surprise didn’t happen, there will be no vaccine by Election Day, and even Thanksgiving might be pushing it.
Front-runner Pfizer Inc.'s oft-repeated suggestion that it might have vaccine data by Halloween was wrong, and Anthony Fauci now suggests an immunization might not be available on even a limited basis until January. Efforts to speed results and availability have been historic, but they have limits. Specifically, quick vaccine hopes have a math problem. To clear a high statistical bar and prove effective enough to get emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration, early candidates would have to be both very protective and quite lucky. That won’t be easy.