As we await the final results to come in from the decisive states, let us assume for a moment that this election ends in the way that now appears most likely. That is, Joe Biden wins, and a large number of conservatives are convinced that the only reason President Trump lost is that Democrats stole the election.
Given these circumstances, if Trump decided that he wanted to run for president again four years from now, is there a Republican politician in the country who would be able to stop him?
For sure, professional Republicans would want to move on from Trump. And many of the Republican voters who merely tolerated him because he was better than the Democratic alternative may be eager for other options. But those are the same groups of people that tried unsuccessfully to kill his candidacy in 2016.
Trump may decide that he doesn’t want to run again. Or his health may decline as he enters his late 70s. But let’s just assume he decides to run and that he’s in roughly the same mental and physical condition that he is now. How can any Republican hope to compete with him?
In defeat, Trump would be in a position unlike that of other one-term presidents. Typically, one-term presidents are written off as losers, and their parties run away from them. Think of Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, or George H.W. Bush. After 1980, nobody ran for office claiming, “I’m a Jimmy Carter Democrat.” Bush I was never a coveted speaker in conservative circles after his loss.
However, Trump, even in defeat, is undoubtedly the most popular Republican in America among Republicans, with a 94% approval rating.
Were Trump to announce a run at some point in 2023, he would instantly dominate all media coverage. There would be no other candidate who would be able to match his name recognition or get noticed by voters.
Republican rivals failed to land a successful attack on him in 2016, when he was an unknown quantity politically. Yet this time, he’d be running as a figure with a proven record of pursuing conservative policies, including three Supreme Court appointments.
Trump has instilled such loyalty that he managed to turn John Bolton — who started his career in politics as a volunteer on the Barry Goldwater campaign and who has, for decades, fought the Washington, D.C., establishment — into some sort of deep state leftist traitor. Anybody who attacks Trump in a primary would be subjected to the Twitter treatment and become a pariah among Republican voters.
Sure, many Republican voters could be sick of Trump’s act in another few years and worried about risking another defeat.
But that may not matter. As we saw in 2016, if Trump can lock down a solid 25% to 30% level of support, it would be enough to win the early primaries and drive out all competition, then gaining support in the later primaries. It’s hard to see how anti-Trump Republicans would be able to consolidate around one alternative candidate fast enough.
Again, perhaps Trump decides he has more influence out of office, given his huge megaphone. He also may want one of his children to run so as to pass on his legacy. But if he decides to run, right now, it’s hard to imagine any Republican big enough to stop him.
