The Case for a Covid Vaccine Lottery
Even the smartest distribution plans are complicated by a stubborn fact: We won't have enough for everyone right away.
Everyone with an equal claim to the vaccine deserves the same chance of receiving it.
Photographer: Getty ImagesHopes for a Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough by the holidays have never been higher, with Pfizer reporting that its vaccine prevented 90% of infections in trials. A vaccine should be available in early 2021 – or possibly earlier – if Pfizer and other strong candidates continuing large-scale clinical trials around the world receive an emergency use authorization.
The big question is daunting: Who should be vaccinated first? Distributing the vaccine quickly will require overcoming numerous ethical and logistical challenges. And it is complicated by a stubborn fact: We won't have enough for everyone right away. But if we allocate the limited supply with a lottery mechanism, we could keep the process fair and also produce valuable new information about vaccine safety and efficacy.