French Lockdown to See Economy Plunge 4.7% in the Fourth Quarter

Constraints on French hospitality, recreation, retail, transport and household services are comparable to those imposed earlier this year, and Bloomberg Economics predicts a similar impact on these industries in the current lockdown. Still, businesses are better prepared this time round and schools should stay open, so the large-scale disruptions to factories, building sites and public and business services seen in April seem unlikely to be repeated. BE estimates that activity outside directly impacted industries will drop only about 10% of the recovery realized by the third quarter, and that French gross domestic product will contract by 4.7% in the final three months of the year.