Economics
India’s Economy to Struggle With Effects of Virus Through 2025
- Oxford Economics sees GDP 12% below pre-Covid levels
- Weak banking sector predicted to delay recovery in investment
The International Monetary Fund predicts GDP will shrink 10.3% in the year to March 2021 as Modi’s sudden lockdown paralyzed activity.
Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
India will be worst-affected among the world’s major economies even after the pandemic wanes, with output 12% below pre-virus levels through the middle of the decade, according to Oxford Economics.
Balance sheet stress that had been building before the coronavirus outbreak will probably worsen, Priyanka Kishore, head of economics for South Asia and South-East Asia, wrote in the report. She projects potential growth for India at 4.5% over the next five years, lower than 6.5% before the virus.