The True Shape of the Covid-19 Pandemic May Surprise You
Models that estimate actual infections paint a very different picture from the confirmed-case numbers.
We need to update our charts.
Photographer: Pool/Getty Images North AmericaHow many people in the U.S. have contracted the coronavirus that causes Covid-19? According to the semi-official confirmed-case numbers gathered from state governments by the Covid Tracking Project, it’s a bit over 13 million.
Everybody knows that number is an undercount. Early in the pandemic, limited testing capacity meant that only a small percentage of Covid cases were recorded. Antibody surveys have since made it possible to estimate just how many were missed: In New York City there were 174,504 cases reported in March and April and probably close to 2 million infections. Testing availability has improved a lot since then, but it’s still not adequate to catch every case.