Covid-19 Deals Tracker: 9.6 Billion Doses Under Contract

This article is no longer being updated as of March 1, 2021. The focus has shifted from vaccine acquisition deals to the production and use of the shots around the globe. Continue to follow the vaccine rollout on our main tracker here.

Desperate for relief from the worst pandemic in a century, countries have struck deals to secure access to life-saving vaccines. By our count, 9.6 billion doses have already been reserved.

That would be enough to cover more than half the world’s population (most vaccines use two doses), if the shots were distributed evenly. That, however, hasn’t happened. Rich countries have accumulated extensive supply deals. Some countries may have to wait until 2022 or later before supplies are widely available.

AstraZeneca’s two-dose shot was the early leader, with pre-purchase agreements that would cover 1.5 billion people—more than twice as many as any other candidate. After its clinical trials were faulted for mistakes in design and execution, other vaccines were first to reach widespread use, including shots made by Novavax, Pfizer and BioNTech, and Russia’s Gamaleya.

In total, Bloomberg has identified more than 130 agreements.

Not every vaccine is certain to work. Bloomberg has removed from the tally 51 million doses reserved by Australia for a homegrown vaccine that failed in clinical trials on Dec. 10. A day later, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Plc announced a delay in their clinical trials after suffering their own setback. Merck shut down its vaccine program on Jan. 25 after lackluster early results.

Strategies to secure vaccines varied widely. The U.S. struck unilateral deals for all of its supply. Dozens of countries will get vaccines through Covax, a consortium backed by the World Health Organization to ensure equitable vaccine distribution. An arrangement brokered by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim will deliver cheap vaccines throughout most of Latin America.

Deals were included in Bloomberg’s analysis only if they had information on which company will make the vaccine, how many doses are covered, and which countries are likely to receive it. Billions of vaccines will likely be manufactured outside of such agreements. India, which has deals to manufacture 2.2 billion doses, plans to send vaccines to other countries in its region.

Coronavirus vaccines are coming to market at a record pace, shaving years off the typical development time. That speed has been financed in part by rich countries like the U.S., whose Operation Warp Speed program helped subsidize development and manufacturing of half a dozen novel vaccines.

Wealth has moved those countries to the front of the line. It’s also allowed some to hedge their bets by securing doses from a variety of manufacturers. Canada, with its population of 38 million, has contracts with at least seven companies to supply enough vaccines for    people—and that doesn’t include vaccines it agreed to buy through the Covax consortium.

Russia and China aren’t striking the same sorts of deals. Instead, they’ll rely on domestically produced vaccines, such as the Sputnik V shots made by Moscow-based Gamaleya Center or those made by China’s state-owned pharmaceutical giant, Sinopharm. While China doesn’t disclose how many doses the government orders from local manufacturers, it’s assumed that those companies will provide as much as the population needs.

World Map of Vaccine Contracts

Canada reserved more than three times what’s needed to inoculate its population

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