The U.S. Dollar Is Not Crashing, No Matter What the Bears Say

Against a broad set of currencies, and adjusted for inflation, the dollar is surprisingly stable.

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The dollar bears are roaring. Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly warned that the dollar is at risk of losing its reserve currency status. In March he wrote a post for LinkedIn titled “Why in the World Would You Own Dollar Debt?” Stephen Roach, the former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, wrote a piece for Bloomberg Opinion in January headlined, “The Dollar's Crash Is Only Just Beginning.”

It’s true the dollar has been soft lately. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of 10 other major currencies, is down 14% since March 2020.