Prognosis
Japan Risks Another Covid Surge With or Without Olympics
- Disease model shows easing restrictions may trigger resurgence
- The government is trying to balance risk with reopening
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The number of people seriously ill with Covid-19 in Tokyo could surge in the coming weeks, peaking as the Olympics are underway, even without thousands of participants streaming into the capital.
A new analysis shows severe coronavirus cases could rise to a level that would require another state of emergency by early August in Tokyo, despite progress in vaccinating the elderly -- if current restrictions in Japan’s urban areas are lifted as scheduled on June 20. The disease modeling from Kyoto University professor Hiroshi Nishiura was presented to government officials at a coronavirus advisory board meeting on Wednesday.