Adams Won By Betting on a New York Divided By Race and Income

By Raeedah Wahid

July 21, 2021, 5:00 AM EDT

Black, Latino and low-income voters from New York City’s outer boroughs gave Eric Adams a decisive edge in the 2021 Democratic mayoral primary in June. The average median income in assembly districts that the Brooklyn Borough President carried was roughly $55,000, compared to $111,000 in the districts where former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia received the largest share of votes.

Adams dominated every borough in the city except Manhattan, showing that a broad coalition of middle and working-class voters could overpower the wealthiest neighborhoods. Garcia won an overwhelming majority among White voters and those living in Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn. Still, she couldn’t overcome Adams’s lead in communities of color.

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey, NYC Board of Elections

“Adams won because he put together an extraordinary coalition of different races, different geographies, different socio-economic backgrounds. He put middle class people together with poor people,” said George Fontas, who runs political consultancy Fontas Advisors and commissioned a number of polls throughout the campaign.

New York’s first citywide ranked choice election allowed voters to list up to five candidates in order of preference. After the first round of counting, Adams led by ten percentage points, a lead that shrunk to less than 1% after all the rounds were tabulated.

Note: See an interactive version of this map here

Source: NYC Board of Elections

Adams’s win showcases the power of Black communities outside of Manhattan, who rallied behind the former police captain. Black residents make up 21.8% of New York City and were a powerful force when Mayor Bill de Blasio was elected in 2013.

Black voters showed their strength again during the 2021 primary to help Adams clinch the win: Black residents made up 34% of the assembly districts that Adams won, which encompass areas like Harlem, the Bronx and South Brooklyn. Black residents made up less than 5% of the districts won by Garcia.

Black New Yorkers vote more heavily than other demographics, said Jerry Skurnik, a Democratic political consultant who specializes in demographic analysis. “It’s become almost impossible to win an election without them,” he said.

Note: Racial groups determined by the American Community Survey. People designated Hispanic can be of any race. Racial groups exclude people of Hispanic/Latino origin.

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey, NYC Board of Elections

In districts Garcia won, 66% of the population is White, more than half the citywide average of 32.1%. Garcia didn’t lead in any communities of color, which made it harder for her to garner enough widespread support to overcome Adams’s lead. Black residents made up only 8.3% of districts that Wiley won, the second-highest concentration of Black residents after districts won by Adams.

“Wiley did well in gentrifying areas and among young Black voters, but there are more older Black voters than young voters,” Skurnik said. “Wiley’s strength, ironically, was with the White gentrifiers.”

Note: Data reflects first choice votes and does not capture voting distributions after ranked choice vote tabulations as this data is not yet available.

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey, NYC Board of Elections

The cooperation of Garcia and Yang in the final weeks of the campaign appeared to play a role in pushing Garcia over Wiley in the final rounds of counting. Yang’s success in Manhattan’s Financial District and across Asian communities in Queens helped funnel votes to Garcia in the later rounds of ranked-choice voting. When Yang was eliminated after round six, Garcia received more of his votes than any other candidate.

Note: A ballot becomes “inactive” when all of the voter’s ranked candidates have been eliminated.

Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey, NYC Board of Elections

Bruce Gyory, a political consultant at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips LLP, said the Yang-Garcia alliance might have been more powerful if it had come sooner.

“Garcia’s rise happened too quickly and too late for her to have the time to prevail,” he said.

Adams Won By Betting on a New York Divided By Race and Income

Income Split

Neighborhoods Diverge

Racial Lines

A City Divided

Did the Garcia-Yang Alliance Work?