Biden Can Leave Afghanistan But Not the Middle East

The U.S. is getting out of Afghanistan, but it is unlikely to get out — and stay out — of the Middle East. For the past decade, three presidents have tried to downsize the American presence in the region; for generations, the Middle East has been a strategic morass. But the U.S. seems stuck there, because its interests are challenged by three lasting crises.

America’s core interests in the Middle East are straightforward. Persian Gulf oil still lubricates the global economy, even if the U.S. itself doesn’t import much of it anymore. The region sits at the crossroads of three continents, which gives Washington further incentive to protect it from hostile powers. The U.S. also seeks to prevent the Middle East from becoming a source of threats, whether nuclear-armed rogue states or catastrophic terrorism. Over the past 40 years, these interests have been imperiled by three interrelated trends.