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Net-zero commitments could limit warming to below 2 °C

Analysis of climate pledges by nations at the COP26 meeting indicates that such commitments could ensure that global warming does not exceed 2 ºC before 2100 — but only if backed up by short-term policies.
  1. Zeke Hausfather

    1. Zeke Hausfather is at Stripe, San Francisco, California 94103, USA, and Berkeley Earth, Berkeley, California 94705, USA.

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  2. Frances C. Moore

    1. Frances C. Moore is in the Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, California 95616, USA.

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The impacts of climate change on human civilization and the natural world will depend on exactly how hot the planet gets over the remainder of the century. The answer to this question hinges on two related uncertainties: how does the physical climate system respond to greenhouse gases? And what volume of greenhouse gases will humans put into the atmosphere? Writing in Nature, Meinshausen et al.1 report that pledges made by countries to limit emissions over the long term could keep warming to less than 2 ºC above pre-industrial temperatures. But optimism should be curbed until promises to reduce emissions in the future are backed up with stronger short-term action.

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Nature 604, 247-248 (2022)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-00874-1

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Competing Interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

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