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00:00And for more on those rising prices and a potential recession. Well it could affect President Biden. Joining us now is Greg Valliere EGF investments chief at U.S. policy strategist. Greg we thank you as always. What did the president really do here. I mean the market the Federal Reserve potentially looking at a recession. Is the Obama administration on the same page. And if yes what can they really do. He can do a few things but they all have downside risks unfortunately for him. He can go to Saudi Arabia and beg for oil but that might anger environmentalists. He can beat up on oil companies and companies in general. But that would say our his relations with companies. He can express some displeasure at the Fed. But I think that would be a mistake as well. So he's in a tough spot. I don't see any panacea any easy quick fix. Craig you just hearing about some of the things that could potentially be done though. Dow Jones acts maybe potentially having a significant impact in terms of the ability of foreign shippers to be able to move crude around. Maybe we do see some sort of a windfall tax that would allow potentially a tax holiday for U.S. drivers. Are there practical things that the president could do and isn't. Yes I agree guy. But at the same time there are downside risk. Let's take a windfall profits tax for example which progressive Democrats are getting very excited about today. If this showed some signs of life I think there would be a blowback by the Republicans. Every one of the 50 Republicans in the Senate would vote against it and there would be some Democrats like Joe Manchin of West Virginia who would vote against it as well. I want to go back to the oil story because it's not just oil prices that are rising food prices as well. It's something that I don't think I've heard any commentary when it comes to the Biden administration. Is there anything on the food front that the Bush administration can do here. I'm not aware of anything that's that's imminent that he could do. No I think that's going to be a very central goal very difficult. You know one other part of this story that you can't overlook and that's Ukraine. I think as long as the war persists in Ukraine we're going to have problems with food prices with energy with raw materials with fertilizer. I think that's a big part of this story. Greg what does this mean politically. I you've been telling us for a long time that the House is gone. The Senate probably has gone as well. That leaves President Biden with two more years with a hostile Congress. What can he do with those two years. And do you think he's done after two years. Yes I do. I've been pretty outspoken. I may be proved wrong but I think I you we're in a situation now where if the Democrats get really annihilated on the November 8th election which looks quite likely I think that maybe Thanksgiving Christmas time Joe Biden will make it clear that he's not going to seek re-election. I point out to everyone that if he won a second term he would be leaving the White House at the age of 86. I think that's too old. I think not only Republicans but increasingly Democrats as well are thinking that Biden will be a one term president a one term president. What does that do in the near term the midterm elections for example. Well his agenda is is in trouble. Needless to say I don't think he has much hope to get anything more done on build back better. I think there's a mood right now against spending. There's a mood right now against any new tax increases. So I think for investors in our industry that's not a bad scenario. We're not going to get a capital gains tax. We're not going to get an estate tax. No change in the step up basis. There are a lot of things that the advisers investment advisers were worried about. I don't think they're going to happen now. Greg if he is a one term president can he do more in the last two years than he's done in the first two years. What does that. What is it a free him up to do or do you think he's going to have his hands so tied by the economy and by Congress. He'll have his hands tied by ISE House Speaker Kevin McCarthy who will probably want to have a hearing a week on Hunter Biden and various alleged transgressions. It's gonna make it tough for Biden to get a lot done with a Republican House. Biden can do a lot on geopolitics and I think he will. That's a tradition in the U.S. But I think in terms of any new economic initiatives it's going to be really difficult for him. Great let's toss it a little bit more about the economy here because we're also dealing with geopolitics in the background trade for example tariff negotiations leading perhaps to that inflation story can talk a little bit about the China of it all. Yeah that's an intriguing angle. I think that you could see some tariffs lifted. There's there's a fight within the administration right now. The New York Times had a good piece on this yesterday between people who feel that tariff should be lifted and others who say no. It's a political risk though for Biden. If he were to lift tariffs on China before the election would he be criticized as being in bed with China with Hunter Biden get into the narrative. So it does have its downside risk but I think in general tariffs could be lifted on other countries at the margins. Who would have some positive impact on inflation. Not a lot but maybe a few tenths of a percent.

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Odds of Recession Soar to 72% Under Biden

The risks of a US recession under President Joe Biden have soared to 72% according to Bloomberg Economics models. This could spell trouble for the White House and Biden's chances at a second term. Greg Valliere of AGF Investments joins "Bloomberg Markets: European Close." (Source: Bloomberg)

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