What-If DC War Game Maps Huge Toll of a Future US-China War Over Taiwan

A think-tank exercise with former Pentagon officials foresees grim results.

China Sends More Ships, Planes Closer to Taiwan
Lock
This article is for subscribers only.

As China waged extensive military exercises off of Taiwan last week, a group of American defense experts in Washington was focused on their own simulation of an eventual — but for now entirely hypothetical — US-China war over the island.

The unofficial what-if game is being conducted on the fifth floor of an office building not far from the White House, and it posits a US military response to a Chinese invasion in 2026. Even though the participants bring an American perspective, they are finding that a US-Taiwan victory, if there is one, could come at a huge cost.