Recession Beat Grows Louder With Slower Earnings, Weaker Economy
- US equity earnings are behaving similar to previous recessions
- Multiple leading indicators put US on recession track
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US equity earnings are behaving similarly to the run-up to previous recessions, tallying with multiple leading indicators showing the US is on track for an economic slump.
Earnings season gathers paces next week, with the big US banks announcing results. Earnings growth has slowed sharply in recent months as the economy feels the impact of higher rates. The ISM, global exports and earnings surprises all give reliable leading relationships for S&P earnings growth, and all point to weakness in coming months.