China Return to Normal to Take at Least a Year, Analysts Say
- Most analysts expect reopening to begin sometime after March
- Likely to be at least six months of adjustment after that
A worker in protective gear guards an entrance to a neighborhood placed under lockdown due to Covid-19 in Shanghai on Nov. 7.
Photographer: Qilai Shen/BloombergChina’s exit from the Covid pandemic could run through the end of next year, with reopening only starting sometime from April and a slow return to normality likely weighing on investors’ hopes for a quick economic recovery, according to a survey of economists.
Almost half of the 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said they think reopening from Covid Zero will begin in the second quarter of 2023, after the parliamentary meeting which usually happens in early March. Another seven said it will start in the July-September period, while two don’t expect change until sometime in 2024, which would be at least four years after the virus was first reported in Wuhan.