Treasury Strategists Expect Lower Yields, Steeper Curve in 2023
- Most bullish forecasts anticipate Federal Reserve cuts in 2024
- Goldman Sachs strategists are bearish and see yields rising
The U.S. Treasury building in Washington, DC.
Photographer: Erin Scott/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
US interest-rate strategists mostly expect that Treasuries will extend their recent rally, dragging yields lower and steepening the curve in the second half of 2023 so long as labor market conditions soften and inflation ebbs.
The most bullish forecasts among those published by primary dealer firms — including predictions from Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and TD Securities — anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut its overnight benchmark in 2024. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which predicts that inflation will stay unacceptably high and that the US economy will avoid a deep recession, has the most bearish forecast.