Hong Kong’s New Normal Isn’t Fooling Anyone

Hong Kong is returning to normal. That’s the message of a relaunch campaign the city kicked off in early February, after abruptly dropping most of the Covid-19 restrictions it had held on to for far longer than most of the world. The government is giving away 500,000 air tickets in what the territory’s top official, John Lee, billed as probably the world’s biggest welcome ever. “Asia’s world city” is ready to welcome back tourists, business travelers and investors, he said, using a marketing slogan introduced by a former leader in 1999.

The “Hello Hong Kong” drive struck many in the city as surreal — and not only because of the launch ceremony’s bizarre breakdance display featuring performers in Cathay Pacific uniforms and business suits. The incongruity of this absurdist spectacle lay in the absence of any reference to the momentous social and political changes that have taken place since the pandemic struck.

The marketing push — which celebrates colonial-era historic attractions such as the Peak Tram and features Cantopop stars who were popular before the 1997 return to Chinese sovereignty — resembles what you might expect if you had engaged China’s state broadcaster to make a promotional video about Hong Kong as it was before the Communist Party decided to erase the city’s autonomy. That place no longer exists.

In considering the impact of Covid-19 three years on, Hong Kong is in a unique position. As in many global cities, life has changed beyond recognition. What’s different in this case is that the pandemic is almost incidental. The government’s unsuccessful pursuit of zero-Covid policies certainly upended daily routines, caused economic and psychological distress, and encouraged emigration. But these effects will fade. The political changes are set in stone.

During the pandemic, China remade Hong Kong society in the image of the communist mainland: closing news organizations, arresting political activists, forcing trade unions to disband, and imposing its own brand of “patriotic” education in schools. It was an all-encompassing crackdown aimed at eradicating dissent after pro-democracy protests convulsed the city in 2019.

The news flow has enhanced the strangeness of the disconnect. Days after Lee declared that Hong Kong was “back” and this was “the perfect time” to visit, the city began the mass trial of 47 defendants charged with subversion — for the crime of taking part in an unofficial primary election.[1]

Almost 3,500 teachers quit in the last academic year, withdrawing $1.3 billion from the city’s pension system. Disney cut an episode of The Simpsons from its streaming platform, the latest example of spreading censorship that was unknown in the city before 2020. And Hong Kong fell to 88th place in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s global democracy index, to cite just a few headlines.

Can this one-eyed approach to selling Hong Kong work?

Where tourists are concerned, perhaps. After all, most visitors from overseas aren’t overly bothered with the domestic political environment, provided activists aren’t being beaten or tear-gassed in front of their eyes. Arrivals remained 93% below pre-pandemic levels in January, so there’s a lot of room for recovery. And Hong Kong retains many of its attractions, including a spectacular harbor skyline, world-class infrastructure and country parks.

The surface signs of a return to normal life are gathering. The Clockenflap music festival was staged for the first time in four years starting March 3, two days after the city dropped its rule on mandatory mask-wearing in public, and attracted a sell-out crowd. The Art Basel annual fair will be held later this month, and global auction houses such as Sotheby’s and Christie’s are bringing back in-person VIP events in anticipation of a reappearance by wealthy mainland Chinese customers. Average daily journeys on subway operator MTR Corp. rose through the second half of last year and were back to about 90% of their pre-Covid level as of December.

The appeal to overseas companies and investors — key to Hong Kong’s enduring role as an international financial center — is more doubtful. Since the start of their sociopolitical overhaul, the city’s Beijing-appointed leaders have insisted they are acting in the interests of, and with the support of, business and the broader population, whose lives and activities were disrupted by the 2019 turmoil. There is little evidence in the data to support this. In fact, the government’s own research shows the opposite.

Political stability and security has consistently ranked lower in importance than factors such as the free flow of information, corruption-free government and rule of law in the government’s annual survey of companies with parents located outside Hong Kong. (The 2021 report was the one exception in the past six years, when it placed fourth.) These attributes have all declined significantly. The proportion of companies having a favorable view of information flows fell to 44% last year, from 66% in 2017.

That tallies with other surveys. Hong Kong’s position in the 2022 Press Freedom Index compiled by Reporters Without Borders dropped 68 places to 148th. Two decades earlier, it ranked 18th.

The evaluation by overseas companies looks even worse when you consider the increased presence in the survey of mainland Chinese enterprises, which are more likely to give politically correct answers. In 2021, the mainland overtook the US as the source of the greatest number of regional headquarters in Hong Kong. As recently as 2018, the US presence was almost 50% bigger.

Curtailing freedoms that once set Hong Kong apart from the mainland has fostered speculation that it will become just another Chinese city. The data show that the territory is indeed becoming more Chinese, and less international. New registrations by non-Hong Kong companies fell to 874 last year, less than half the 2019 figure. Incorporations by local companies also dropped last year, and remain about 17% below 2019 levels. That’s hardly surprising considering the economy shrank 3.5%; it’s too early for post-reopening data.

In proclaiming its re-emergence, the government’s strategy appears to be to pretend that nothing has changed. The lifting of Covid restrictions has certainly made Hong Kong more livable, as I witnessed myself on a visit to the city at the end of January. Restaurants and malls were bustling, from what I saw. But this is far from a return to normality, and no number of dancing flight attendants can disguise it.

As long as the city continues to jail people for exercising the civic rights they were once promised they could keep, it can only be a new abnormal.