China Is Walking a Tightrope With the US. It Needs a Net
As the Soviets realized after the Cuban Missile Crisis, guardrails help the weaker party in a rivalry avoid a potentially disastrous escalation.
China deeply resents US patrols near its shores.
Photographer: Toshifumi Kitamura/AFP/Getty Images
The US is bracing for China’s reaction to a scheduled meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California on Wednesday. After Tsai sat down with McCarthy’s predecessor Nancy Pelosi in Taipei last year, Beijing launched several days of intense military exercises surrounding Taiwan, firing ballistic missiles over the island and dispatching dozens of fighter jets across the informal “median line” in the Taiwan Strait.
Aggressive and dangerous displays of force by China have become more and more common in recent years, whether directed against Taiwan or against US patrols and reconnaissance flights in the region. Until now, China has resisted US calls to build “guardrails” to prevent confrontations from spiraling out of control, believing that a degree of uncertainty helps deter the US. It would be wise to rethink that calculus.