How Summer Air Travel Got So Crowded and Expensive

Leisure travel always picks up after school lets out in the US, but the first summer without any pandemic-related restrictions worldwide is shaping up to be exceptional, likely exceeding record levels set in 2019. A confluence of post-pandemic forces means flying is likely to be crowded and expensive for at least the rest of this year. About 275 million people are expected to travel between May 25 and Sept. 4, according to TD Cowen. That’s 7.4% higher than in 2019 and 19% higher than last year.

International markets are hot this summer, particularly anywhere in Europe, because it’s the first busy travel season since many countries dropped vaccination requirements and quarantines and the first since the World Health Organization lifted its health emergency. As a result, airlines are devoting more capacity to international routes than they did last summer. Fares from the US to Europe are the highest they’ve been in more than five years, according to travel-booking app Hopper. Tickets are averaging $1,167 round trip, compared with $850 last year and $861 in 2019. Tickets to Asia are averaging $1,817, higher than both the $1,468 average in 2022 and $1,122 in 2019, Hopper data shows. If you haven’t booked a European trip yet, you may have a hard time finding a seat. Delta Air Lines Inc. Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said last month that 75% of its international seats had been booked for the summer. Domestic prices are averaging $306, down 19% from last year as carriers offer more seats and spend less for jet fuel. But it’s still well above the $288 average in 2019, according to Hopper.