The Big Take
Why a US Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon
The government is staying open for now. But Bloomberg Economics sees risks ahead, from strikes to higher rates and oil prices.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington on Sept. 20.
Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
When everyone expects a soft landing, brace for impact. That’s the lesson of recent economic history — and it’s an uncomfortable one for the US right now.
A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence — not least at the Federal Reserve — that the world’s biggest economy will avoid recession.