Bond Traders Boost US Recession Bets as Growth Falters
- Gauge rose above zero in September for first time in two years
- Negative term premium may signal dire economic outlook: MUFG
Treasury investors are turning increasingly skeptical the Federal Reserve will deliver a soft landing for the US economy next year, elevating concern of a looming recession over the risks posed by inflation and a swelling budget deficit.
That’s the signal from the latest move in the so-called term premium, which describes the extra yield investors demand to own longer-term debt instead of rolling over shorter-dates securities as they mature.